To predict fifty years of war and cruelty or wealth and poverty, one should
reckon with a factor that is already here today and will continue until 2070.
It is the two billion children under the age of fifteen. If we break them down to 10,000, 1,300 of them live in East Asia, where there are at least 100 high achievers among 1,000 children, and 700 in the Europeanized world (60 in Germany), where there are 25 aces among 1,000. Only these blocks with altogether 35 nations compete globally. Yet, they are short of offspring and, therefore, have a war index below 1. The remaining 8,000 children live in 160 nations that have never been industrialized or are in premature deindustrialization because their 0 to 3 high achievers among 1,000 children do not suffice to master high tech branches. Their scarce best are poached by the top nations that, at the same time, must turn themselves into fortresses of competence that only accept high-skilled immigrants. All nations with a war index above 2 are among the hopeless 80 percent. Since they lack weapon systems for attacks on the First World, they will experience, especially in the sub-Saharan region, extreme crises and large-scale killings in their vicinity.