Prof. em. Dr. Carlyle A. Thayer: "The ASEAN-China code of conduct in the South China Sea: The journey is more important than the destination" - Carlyle A. Thayer - Universität Hamburg
Abstract
The title of my presentation is taken from remarks by a senior ASEAN diplomat at a recent seminar held in Southeast Asia. China and ASEAN members have been discussing and negotiating a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea for twenty-seven years. In August 2018, they reached agreement on a Single Draft Code of Conduct in the South China Sea Negotiating Text (SDNT).
This presentation will present an overview of this long journey with a particular focus on current negotiations on the SDNT. I argue that the long journey is more important than the final destination – a mutually agreed Code of Conduct – because ASEAN claimants can continually engage China on matters of immediate concern as part of the negotiation process. Because the final COC must be adopted by consensus individual claimants can continually pressure China by withholding their agreement. A quick agreement would shift to a focus on contentious issues such as applying the terms of the COC and adjudicating differences in interpretation.
My presentation concludes that a South China Sea COC is unlikely in the near future because a number of key issues remain unresolved: geographic scope, dispute settlement mechanism, enforcement measures, legal status of the COC, and the role of third parties.
Presenter
Carlyle A. Thayer is Emeritus Professor at The University of New South Wales (UNSW) at the Australian Defence Force Academy (ADFA) in Canberra. Thayer was educated at Brown University and after graduation in 1967 he served in South Vietnam with the International Voluntary Services (1967-68). He then earned an M.A. in Southeast Asian Studies from Yale, where he studied Vietnamese (1969-71), and a PhD in International Relations from The Australian National University (1977). Thayer joined UNSW in 1979 and taught at The Royal Military College-Duntroon. In 1985, he transferred to ADFA where he served as Head of the Department of Politics (1995-98). Thayer’s career includes three major periods on secondment: Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, The Australian National University (1992-95); leave in the national interest, Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Hawaii (1999-2001); and academic-co-ordinator for Australia’s senior defence course, Centre for Defence and Strategic Studies, Australian Defence College (2002-04). In 2005, he was appointed the C.V. Starr Distinguished Visiting Professor at the School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University. He then served as Director of Regional Security Studies at the Australian Command and Staff College (2006-07 and 2010). In 2008, he was appointed the Inaugural Frances M. and Stephen H. Fuller Distinguished Visiting Professor at Ohio University. Since retirement in 2010, Thayer has been active as Director of Thayer Consultancy, a small business registered in Australia that provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Over the past eleven years he has presented papers at 151 international conferences and webinars (in person and virtual); written 1,604 Thayer Consultancy Background Briefs; and given 3,177 media interviews. Thayer is a Southeast Asia regional specialist with special expertise on Vietnam and the South China Sea. He is the author of over 500 academic publications.
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This hybrid conference was held on November 18, 2022 in order to introduce the general political conditions and to provide various views from different regions in the South China Sea area.
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