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Back to the future: a guided journey through Earth system predictions

Skilful Earth system predictions for a season or a decade ahead remain in many cases a formidable challenge. I will present recent progress in predicting climate and Earth system variability using prediction systems based on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). I will also challenge the current practice to focus on the ensemble mean and suggest a less-is-more approach instead.

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